Wheat stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici) is a serious fungal pathogen affecting all major wheat-producing regions in Australia. Despite the ongoing development of resistant cultivars, this fungal disease remains a recurring and widespread problem to producers with potential yield losses of up to 80%. Early detection of infected plants is vital to enable timely treatment and prevent local disease outbreaks. However, to efficiently target crop monitoring resources, better guidance about the spatial distribution of risk is needed. We developed a risk model describing the potential for stripe rust outbreaks based on the disease’s infectious cycle. The model integrated important risk factors such as wind dispersal from infested fields, cultivar resistance and climatic conditions favouring rust infection and sporulation. Spatially-explicit predictions of outbreak risk were derived for wheat growing regions in mainland Australia. Research outputs can be used to guide the timing and spatial prioritization of on-farm crop monitoring decisions.